Tag Archives: crash

More on the crunch and Scotland

The implications of the credit crunch on Scottish nationalism is something already being explored by the Scottish press, as I mentioned yesterday. It’s also being talked about more here in London too, aided by a BBC interview with Gordon Brown in which he points to the bail-out as testiment to the strength of the Union.

A couple more links from today’s Times; first, Magnus Linklater asks: “Where would that rescue fund, its value estimated at about £100bn – the equivalent of Scotland’s entire GDP – have come from?”. Unlike Fraser Nelson in the Spectator (quoted yesterday) Linklater sees a “penal” level of taxation in a parallel universe where Scotland is now independent.

Meanwhile, a leader in the same paper reckons “when the Scottish financial sector, the fifth largest in Europe, cannot survive without help from London, the case for the Union is strengthened… The Union that has served [Scotland] for three centuries may be the only asset in Scotland that has not depreciated sharply over the last two weeks.”

Alex Salmond is, of course, playing a long game; future electoral reform that reduced Scotland’s over-representation in Westminster, and/or removed Scottish MP’s votes from English and Welsh matters, would usher in a long era of Conservative government. That would certainly aid Salmond’s cause, and the pain of this crunch might by then be forgotton, as the Guardian’s Severin Carrell pointed out yesterday.

But this is all just politics playing on our short memories; you’d have to worry the fundamentals would not necessarily have changed in Scotland’s favour by then, whether or not we could remember the worrying times we’re living through today.

[Later: Shaun Milne, who first pointed out that "financial Culloden" story to me yesterday, praises the Scotsman's coverage of the crisis - especially the title's exploration of the political angle to Brown's bailout.]

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Is the crash really Scotland’s “financial Culloden?”

There’s a grim irony that, just as Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are rebuilding their reputations at home and abroad, their homeland appears to be in a deep gloom.

While this morning’s Financial Times refers to Brown being hailed as a hero around the world, back home there’s a warning his rescue plan – involving part nationalisation of Scotland’s two biggest banks – cloaks a “financial Culloden” for Scotland. Bill Jamieson writes in the Scotsman:

“This is a massive humiliation for Scotland’s banks. The injection of government money through preference shares that will yield 12 per cent crushes the interests of the ordinary shareholders.

[...] I fear that, once the panic and hysteria that overwhelmed markets in the past month have subsided, this deal will create a blazing resentment among shareholders. They will see it as a Treaty of Versailles of finance, with the banks bent double by crushing reparations.

Humiliation? For the banks, yes. Resentment? I’m not so sure. It would be hard to have too much sympathy for those “ordinary shareholders”, whose holdings were, at least, rendered worth something by the rescue. They’d had warnings, as the Scotsman itself reported earlier in the year, and many would have enjoyed the ride on the way up.

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Reality television

Never mind escapism. Turns out, as Sarah Hughes reports on MediaGuardian, that real life is making for the really compelling drama this autumn.

“What if you started a television season and nobody watched? From behemoths such as Heroes to new shows such as Fringe, US television is in the middle of a ratings freefall as viewers turn away from escapist dramas and tune into politics instead.

All the superpowers in the world aren’t enough to make people stop worrying in times like these and some of America’s biggest hits have suffered – on ABC Grey’s Anatomy drew 17% fewer viewers to its season premiere this year, Ugly Betty was down 15% while NBC’s Heroes, coming off the back of a much-criticised second season, slumped 29% from 14.1 million to 10 million viewers.”

Maybe the need for escapism will come later as things really begin to bite. And it will; as Mrs Tosh points out, despite the schadenfreude of some who claim to be enjoying the fall of finance’s big beasts, this crash will be harming us all. There’s true drama being played out as we discover how financiers and politicians deal with it, because their action – or lack of it – will determine our prosperity for years to come. The ratings – including a 57.1m audience for the first Presidential debate – show just how strongly TV viewers know it.

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