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Clay Shirky: "Round and round this goes, with the people committed to saving newspapers demanding to know “If the old model is broken, what will work in its place?” To which the answer is: Nothing. Nothing will work. There is no general model for newspapers to replace the one the internet just broke… That is what real revolutions are like. The old stuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is put in its place. The importance of any given experiment isn’t apparent at the moment it appears; big changes stall, small changes spread. Even the revolutionaries can’t predict what will happen."
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The second of two fine essays on the future of news, this one an optimistic effort from Steven Berlin Johnson. "There is going to be more content, not less; more information, more analysis, more precision, a wider range of niches covered. You can see the process happening already in most of the major sections of the paper: tech, politics, finance, sports." I hope he's right, although I suspect the route to his world may be a little more bumpy than he concedes.
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COMMENTS / ONE COMMENT
REG CROWDER thought this on Mar 29 09 at 7:09 pmThanks for the Clay Shirky piece. It makes some good points but perhaps more important it sets the right tone for how to think about this print media malaise.
I had a few metro dailies in the U.S. that I worked for go out of business. I was starting to think it was my fault. I figured if I moved over to digital and online media, that might save the newspaper industry. Obviously, that didn’t work. Although it sure saved me…
I worked for one publishing group that was so desperate that they actually invited ME to serve on the committee to help save them. Now, that is the high water mark for desperation, as I see it.
But it gave me an eyeful. The committee got a close and intimate look at the economics of newspaper publishing, at least in the U.S. The thing that sort of freaked me out was that they were making bigger margins than the greediest drug pusher would ever expect to get. And while extracting this mountain of cash from the regional economy, they figured they were entitled to subsidized postal rates (subsidy from the U.S. taxpayer) and a license from the U.S. Attorney General to violate the antitrust laws. (This license to crush competition was implemented by former President Richard M. Nixon, and if I recall correctly, the law was named, “The Failing Newspaper Act.”
(This adventure was a few years back. Those incredible margins are, uh, you know, gone.)
It seems to me then that the economics of newspapers were quite insane — and eventually it would “get ‘em.” It did.
If newspapers got a little smarter and their owners would settle for a sensible return, something like maybe 400 basis points above 10-year Treasuries, there might be some business to be done. I don’t think we’re there yet, on either point.
Meanwhile, would somebody tell me how to destroy the phone company? I had to buy a satellite ground station to get broadband.
– REG CROWDER
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