Scotland’s continued health

It’s good to see Times columnist Magnus Linklater agree with my earlier post here that it’s better to get sick in Scotland than in England, for the moment. He also spots the conflict of interest that a Nationalist parliament has when it’s spending money it doesn’t have to raise.

But he draws a different conclusion.

“The more pertinent point, however, is to question how the present administration in Edinburgh intends to pay for the NHS as its costs escalate and the funding diminishes. Thus far, ministers in Scotland have not had to worry too much about their share of the national cake, because the cake has expanded so dramatically. Twenty years ago the Scottish budget was around £12 billion a year. Within the next two years it will have reached £30 billion – an increase of 150 per cent. That has allowed spending commitments that would otherwise have been inconceivable.

Alistair Darling’s Comprehensive Spending Review has put a brake on that… [the SNP] know that, sooner or later, they will have to confront the reality of government: to cut their coat according to the cloth available.

Ironically, that would happen very rapidly, and very drastically, if they won their goal of independence and found themselves having to raise their own taxes in Scotland. At a stroke their budget would be reduced, their spending targets curtailed and their accountability ruthlessly exposed.

SNP ministers may even now be wondering if the independence game is worth the candle.”

He’s being mischievous, I’m sure. I don’t think those SNP ministers will be having any doubts. Moving Scotland to independence remains a long game, not one for this or the next administration. There’s precious little reward for taking unpopular but pragmatic action now to alleviate a problem that may never arise.

And, of course, the problem will certainly never arise should the SNP not make a good fist of things now they’re in power. Which brings us back, full circle, to the electoral bind I was talking about earlier in the week; the powerful disincentive the SNP has to do anything but spend on public services, and the problems Gordon Brown faces if he can’t mirror Scotland’s success in healthcare delivery.